what the seers are saying!

Yes you are right & What the financial commentators are saying ?

Yes we are where Peter from Bell Potter says we are in the cycle.
Peter showed us on a template during his lunchtime address on Tuesday that we are in the ‘year of volatility’ that is normal.

So it is normal to be down by 13% during the 2nd year after governments bails out the banks.

Peter expects at least 2 of the PIIGS to default as ‘Europe is sad & bad’.
However if PIG do fall then at most 3% of Europe wealth.

He commented that OECD government bonds are greater that the OECD net wealth & that it takes 5 to 14 years for government deficits to be reduced to sustainable levels.

Peter is optimistic about China prospects as 36 million more units & infrastructure is being built in Tier 2, 3 cities.

In Australia rates will go up to 5.75% in a year’s time & hence exchange rates will stay above parity for longer.

He observed that overseas fund managers consider the government ‘ hopeless’ & hence are repatriating their funds out.
This is another reason why equity markets have weakened.

Thanks again ‘poll dancers’.

After August 2012 Peter suggests as Peter from Sky Business says it is ‘off to the races’ with a gain of 40%.


Then we have Porter from The USA forecasting ‘the end of America’.
He is particularly negative. We have been following him for 3 years & he has made the big calls correctly. He particularly blames big government & their causes of most of the volatility.

He suggests this is caused by paper money, the explosion of debt, the military & where losses e.g. GFC are socialised but the profits are private.Porter is placing all his core shares on hold & has some ‘shorts’ on financials & even more trouble on the US real estate market.

He calls this 'the Great Correction’.



Then we have Steve who have subscribed to for 4 years.
Although he would prefer to be optimistic he comments that ‘the trend is down’ & markets are ‘wobbly’.

Hence again his core stocks are on hold & he is only adding gold at present as are the above two. Where else do the big players park their money?


Then we read this morning from Doug who summarises it all with ‘we are not out of the woods yet’.

It all depends on the US reporting season & if negative then ‘it will in effect serve as a great low-risk buying opportunity when the dust settles’.


So you are right as ‘Australian retail cash deposits are at a record high of $560 billion, an 8.9% increase for the year to March and 1.5% increase for the quarter to March, according to the latest CoreData Australian Cash report.
Credit unions, interestingly enough, have been growing at an above system rate of 10.1% for the year to March and 1.6% for the quarter to March 201’.


What the commentators say doesn’t necessarily help you.
Leaving funds in cash forever doesn’t achieve that 1,000,000 very fast.

We all have the challenges of wanting or needing to be independent of government as at present they are all broke or on the path to being so.

The Common thread of all this is ‘Sovereign risk’ & with 500+billion in government bonds Australia is on the slippery slope.
We have the challenges of becoming a millionaire with a million in capital outside the house, less taxx & less debt.

It also means good health & from what we have observed recently some better estate planning.

Here to help you & welcome to call on 07 3848 1088 or email
John McAuliffe