Matt states that
Greece & Spain will default
Yes Matt is
a fund manager of 2.3Billion who occasionally leaves his four simultaneous
computer screens to appear on business TV or face financial advisers.
There was
plenty to take out of his presentation but as always we are interested in the
future & so some notes working backwards from his answers is a way to
summarise his case.
I.e. the
last 30 years is no guide to the next 10 years.
So expect less
capital gains & focus on risk & income.
·
Earnings
growth of companies to be below average
·
Asia
to be the global growth driver
·
Interest
rates to rise
·
The
main driver of returns to be income growth
·
Lowest
risk debt is corporate & not government
·
Preferred
risk hedge is income producing assets & not US bonds
·
Asset
exposure to emphasis quality & not growth
·
The
Australian $ will remain above parity.
Currently
the markets [share]have priced in all the bad news & are the lowest in 20
years.
Matt did have some great slides which included
comparing returns of the 5 major asset classes over various periods. [which we have for you to view]
The key
point out of those & hence wealth creating was reinvesting the income back
into the class & allowing compound
interest to work. This had a dramatic long term impact.
And the
winner was over any 20 year period ,you
guessed it, shares with a multiple of
160 times original as they are exposed to the real economy. [Property was 44times
& cash 25 times].
Matt also
showed a slide comparing previous similar cycles & where we are on the
current one.
As Peter Q
has also shown us we are ‘grinding’
towards the big upswing in the markets.
The markets
are going to be dominated by long term trends according to Matt. i.e.
·
hard
commodities down as we see this week although we are a ‘gold fondler’.
·
Emergence
of income investing as a source of wealth creation
·
Downward
earnings & valuations in advanced economies.
·
An
evolution in risk return dynamics
Matt
comments ‘that it wont be the smartest or
fittest investor that benefits from the new environment but the investor that
who is most adaptable to change’.
We had
PIMCO [huge global bond manager] asking ‘ Will
action follow words in Europe?
This is a challenging list, especially for the next few
weeks; and it requires the type of political leadership and coordination that,
hitherto, has tended to elude the eurozone.
When we read that SMSP trustees are putting their
retirement funds into residential houses or Australian property & cash we understand
that anything else is too hard.
However as Matt clearly showed its income that creates wealth & the net rental return from such property is
1% from all the observations we have made. Matt mentioned an income fund that was returning 7% & there are
plenty of such income funds.
Debbie told us
the worst decision & experience she
made was a rental property. We as a baby
boomer are well aware that contempories are retiring & finding the negative
cashflow from such properties too much. They are selling which isn’t helping
the housing market as we know.
We observe today on our Linkedin
sites that an ex colleague is selling houses in USA. An ex Coalition leader has
a trust for similar. Greece & Spain maybe buys after their default. These maybe
better options but who is going to look after them for you?
Although the
bus driver asked us if we had a seniors card on returning from Matt’s talk we
have the same challenges as we expect to Bat as long as our late ‘Auntie’ Freda
i.e. to 95. Wealth creation is a challenge & evolutionary & for those
who live & breathe the markets.
Of course getting
to age 95 needs Brilliant
health & at 95 we might need Aged Care advice.
We have
solutions for both challenges.
As the European meddlers return from holidays &the
looming ‘fiscal cliff’ & as the Volatility index VIX
is very low then as Richie says D for defence could be the best strategy for
the short term.
However Cash or rental property won’t achieve the 1,000,000 Capital we need outside
the house.
Mark suggested
that they could do better budgeting. When he also pays 35,000 in taxx then
there must be a better way as high incomes also need tuning.
You are welcome to
call on 07 3848 1088 or email
or visit our websites as we have helped tune finances for 28 years.
We do have for you to view Matt’s presentation
but we admit we are not Matt.
John
McAuliffe